Caught my first ban today on an alt I was leveling. Did like 99% of it by hand (account is maybe 2'ish months old) and decided to use a one-tick magic bot for like 2 hours I used in the past on my main and got banned
In hindsight I was retarded using a one-tick bot on a new'ish account. I botted most of my main to 99, but most of the skilling leading up to 99 was by hand, but some were almost entirely botted, like fishing was virtually 100% botted for several hour stretches with no bans.
I think the truth to all of this is mostly what OP stated. It's a temp 2 day ban on the alt, but I don't even want to bother with it anymore since it's high risk now.